Let's not talk again about who is right and who is to blame for the conflict between Huawei and the US government. Sanctions have been imposed, the company's business has been undermined and it somehow has to live with it. Let's better discuss how this is affecting the company now and what all this will mean for it in kind in the future. Now we have reports from analysts and insiders who tell us how much sales should drop against the background of what is happening with Huawei. The figure is actually impressive. If all this really comes true, then we can safely say that we will have a new contender for a place in the top three. Huawei in this case will definitely fall out of the top three, but may even fall out of the top five. Here is a disappointing forecast. But should the company be concerned about this?
Next year Huawei will be harder than this one.
Situation with Huawei
You may remember how Huawei surprised the entire tech world when it became the number one smartphone brand in Q2 2020. She even surpassed Samsung. Moreover, the result was not just a one-off. The company consolidated its success in the first quarter, when Huawei also held a leading position in the industry.
It is widely believed that the manufacturer was able to capitalize on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in its domestic market in China, while Samsung's strongholds in Europe and North America were hit hard by the pandemic. It is believed that this is how the telecommunications giant was able to raise sales of its gadgets, taking advantage of unlimited support in the domestic market.
How many smartphones are selling Huawei
Unfortunately for Huawei, Korean The Elec is now reporting that the brand plans to produce far fewer smartphones in 2021. Huawei has reportedly informed its South Korean subcontractors that it plans to ship just 50 million units of smartphones next year. This is very small!
In order to make it easier to compare the values, it is necessary to give the figures for the current year. Based on them, the company can cut production immediately by 74%. True, this is a projected figure, since by the end of 2020, 190 million units are expected to be shipped. To understand the scale of the disaster, suffice it to say that Huawei shipped 55 million smartphones in the second quarter alone. That is, more than planned for the entire next year. It is also reported that such a strong drop is directly related to the US bans and sanctions against the telecommunications giant.
These smartphones do well in many ways with their processors.
What is prohibited Huawei
It all started with a ban on the use of Google services. This cannot affect work with Android, since the operating system itself is open. The problem is that all its salt lies in the services, access to which was closed.
One of the latest bans is a ban on the use of Kirin's own processors, which were produced for the company at TSMC factories. They were the hallmark and one of the ingredients of success Huawei. Now the company will have to get out and figure out where to get processors for its new devices.
Since from September 14 Huawei it will not be able to work with TSMC, it will have to rely on the accumulated stock of microcircuits that the Taiwanese company has been actively preparing for it in the past few months. There is also an option in which Huawei itself will start producing chips for their devices or will buy them on the side. The first option is expensive and will take a long time to implement. The second is much simpler, but MediaTek does not provide the high quality that users are used to Huawei (especially regarding flagships).
There is another scenario, for example, the purchase of “hardware” from the Chinese company SMIC, but here, too, not everything is so simple. Surely, as soon as these companies begin to work normally with each other, the US government may again intervene with new sanctions.
Part of the salvation Huawei lies in HarmonyOS
What will happen to Huawei
As a result, the best option for Huawei, of course, will be your own production. If she fixes it, there should be no further problems. Perhaps the company decided to sacrifice a couple of years of sales for now in order to establish its own production, and then join the race with renewed vigor. If so, then the move could be risky. On the other hand, technologies in the smartphone world are now at a stage of stagnation and the company will be able to recoup the gap. Moreover, she has enough resources for this. Don't forget that smartphones are only part of the business Huawei. Moreover, it is, of course, large, but not large.
Surely Samsung will want to take advantage of the state of affairs. Sources told Elec that Samsung is targeting aggressive policies in Europe and India next year. These markets have traditionally been loyal to Huawei, but this may now be changing. Specifically, it is reported that Samsung plans to ship 300 million smartphones next year. Let's see what happens.