It just so happened that for more than a year we can only believe in Huawei and hope that the company will be fine. Of course, it will take time before she can get out of this situation. The only problem is that she may not get out. Of course, she has a huge number of activities that bring her a lot of money. It's just that at its helm are very smart people, but they are not magicians either. You can save the sinking trough as much as you like, but the maximum size of the hole at which this can be done is always there. Even with the overwhelming support of the Chinese people and government, the company may not be able to withstand such pressure. I wish her only well, because I love her gadgets and I like her approach, but there is too much bad news lately to be optimistic with ease.
Huawei all that remains is to fight.
What will happen to Huawei
If you have read Dmitry Glukhovsky's novel “Twilight” (not related to a film about vampires), then, perhaps, you will also find parallels with what is happening. Just remember the ending and how it all collapsed one by one, and the hero went to meet the last sunrise. There, too, everything began very well and even in some way positively, but gradually closer to the finale of the work, the realization came that the end was inevitable. If you haven't read the book, you will still understand what I am talking about.
Since 1987, when Huawei was founded, it has grown by leaps and bounds. First, it became the first in the world of telecommunications, then gradually entered the smartphone market and confidently took its place in the leading three. She also had other areas of activity, for example, cloud technologies. This sector, by the way, still seems to be almost the most promising for the company.
The economy is arranged so that if you have a large company, such as Huawei, then it must grow and constantly develop, investing more and more in development and getting more and more back. Otherwise, she may start having problems that will grow like a snowball.
And so it happened with the telecommunications giant, only this was not the result of management mistakes, as is usually the case, but deliberate actions of the US government. The gradual “tightening of the nuts” could not lead to anything good. And while it leads precisely to the bad.
Huawei has cool tech, but a couple of targeted sanctions could ruin everything.
You will say that the company has been number one in the smartphone market for the last two quarters, ahead of even Samsung, and you will be right. That's just a temporary phenomenon. It is caused by the fact that Samsung is building its sales in markets that were much more difficult to recover from the pandemic. When China had already overcame the spread of the infection and began to gradually return to the previous level, Europe and the United States were drowning in tens of thousands of infections and protests, such as the BLM movement, which did not bring anything good to the economy and smartphone sales.
As a result, this effect will gradually disappear and what next? And then there will only be a drop in smartphone sales. The company was still able to overcome the situation with the app store. It may not have made a complete replacement for Google Play, but AppGallery has also grown a lot and acquired what will be enough for the vast majority of users. And the company actively talks about what is not in it on its website.
What processors will it use Huawei
Let's say this problem has been solved, but now the company has been deprived of the main thing that it had – the Kirin processor. So far, there are tens of millions of chipsets in warehouses, which will be enough for several months of work. But what's next? Now more and more news appears that semiconductor manufacturers are actively knocking out their permission to work with Huawei. Even Qualcomm and Samsung are achieving this. Flagship smartphones Huawei based on chipsets MediaTek are not needed by anyone, and there are no others yet (except for stocks).
Huawei have good and forward-looking leaders, but spitting against the wind is also difficult.
If Qualcomm starts trading from Huawei, it will be a very indicative situation from a business standpoint, but it will really save Huawei. Many will even be glad, but it will still be a kind of defeat for the Chinese company. Even the fact that the new architecture of chips will allow much more flexibility in customizing them for each manufacturer will not save the day. Primarily because of another important factor.
Who said that the limit of sanctions for Huawei has been exhausted? Who said that if she can buy processors (or make them herself), she will not be banned from buying, say, cameras or screens. All this can happen and then new problems will have to be solved. The only way out of this situation would be complete self-sufficiency. To do this, you need to learn how to do everything yourself (or buy ready-made technologies) and build huge factories. China will be only happy with the growth of employment, but it is too expensive and it is not a fact that Huawei it will pull.
What Huawei produces itself
Even if Huawei has such things as its own operating system, its own app store, its own means of communication, and much more, complete autonomy is too cool even for her. On the other hand, if the company achieves this, it will become literally invincible. But do not forget that lugging such luggage is also not easy, and selling a little more smartphones than Google, it simply will not “pull” such costs.
EMUI is another thing that we can lose in this fight. On the other hand, whatever you call it, the basic principles can be saved in another operating system.
Considering that this takes time (even if we omit the question of money), the company will have time to sink in sales and then it will have to make up much, but history does not yet know such a rise from a deep knockout. Hence the question: will the company start doing this or will it simply reformat its business and do something else, especially since this is not a problem in China?
There is no definite answer to this question, but the situation with Huawei is increasingly depressing. I would like it to withstand and show us a beautiful struggle with the global business system, but so far the belief in this is dwindling. I am completely for her, because I love her smartphones, I know people who work in the company, and we just need a strong player, but how it all goes, only time will tell. In any case, the future is and is Huawei. But in what form?